Objective: To give an update and steadily gauge the global, regional, and public burden of PD after1990 till 2021, predict things till 2040.
Background: Parkinson’s disease(PD) sets a upward global health challenge due to aging populations, affects elders. Its pathological features are loss of dopaminergic neurons in SN plus formation of Lewy bodies. PD manifests motor, and non-motor symptoms. A study in 2019Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimated that over8.5 million people were living with PD, stressing the growing public health concern as the global population shifts toward an older demographic. Above 65 and older patients, the prevalence of disease is notable, accounting for about3% of this population, and rising to5% in those aged85. By 2040, due to population aging and increased life expectancy, this number is predicted to exceed12million. This demographic shift urgently calls for attention to the burden of PD, which holds not only direct health waves, but also social costs and care needs allied with concerned entities.
Method: Data used as of Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2022 to steadily explore global, burden of PD as of 1990 to 2022, project trends till 2040. By merging prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) metrics, alongside gender, age, geographical location, and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), we used Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model plus disintegration analysis to assess drivers of PD burden.
Results: Globally, in early 2022, the prevalence of PD was 1,176,727 cases, with 388,194 mortality and 747,182 DALY. As of 1990-2022, incidence amplified by 273.78%, death by 162.18%, and DALYs increased by 161.80%. Regarding regions, low-middleSDI zones have usual mean-average annual% changes(EAPC) in incidence, death, plus DALY(4.57%,2.51%,2.59%). Breakdown analysis meant that epidemiological changes, aging, plus people were key drivers of PD burden. Prognoses asof2022-2040 suggest that the prevalence will rise, while death is expected to decline.
Conclusion: The global burden of Parkinson’s disease exhibits a persistent upward trajectory, with evident differences in terms of gender, age, and regions. This is particularly noticeable among middle-aged and elderly men, as well as in regions with the low-middle SDI. Targeted measures to address regional healthcare gaps and to improve global aging are crucial for mitigating the burden of PD.
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To cite this abstract in AMA style:
V. Raju, A. Dabbeta. Parkinson`s disease future prediction [abstract]. Mov Disord. 2025; 40 (suppl 1). https://www.mdsabstracts.org/abstract/parkinsons-disease-future-prediction/. Accessed October 5, 2025.« Back to 2025 International Congress
MDS Abstracts - https://www.mdsabstracts.org/abstract/parkinsons-disease-future-prediction/