Category: Epidemiology
Objective: To validate the “enhanced” PREDICT-PD algorithm in a longitudinal population-based cohort and compare its performance with other Parkinson’s disease risk scores in identifying cases with incident Parkinson’s disease.
Background: Different risk scores and algorithms aiming to identify individuals at risk of Parkinson’s disease or prodromal disease have been proposed. Recent updates of these scores have been presented and comparative studies of these scores in the general elder population are needed.
Method: We have previously applied the “basic” PREDICT-PD algorithm, and the original and updated Movement Disorder Society research criteria for prodromal PD to the longitudinal population-based Bruneck study cohort. We have now additionally employed the “enhanced” PREDICT-PD algorithm and compared the performance of the 4 scores. Risk scores were calculated based on comprehensive assessments obtained at baseline (2005) in 574 subjects aged 55-94 years (290 females) and cases of incident PD were identified at 5-year (n=11) and 10-year follow-up (n=9). We analysed the association of the different log-transformed risk scores with incident PD at follow-up (calculated per one standard-deviation unit-change).
Results: The enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm was associated with incident PD over 10-years of follow-up, yielding higher odds for incident PD (OR=4.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.68-7.93; p<0.001) compared with the original PREDICT-PD score (OR=2.38, 95%CI 1.49–3.79; p<0.001). The updated MDS prodromal criteria were numerically superior (OR=7.13, 95%CI 3.49-14.54; p<0.001) in comparison with the original criteria as well as the updated PREDICT PD score, with overlapping 95%CI.
Conclusion: Our findings confirm a greater accuracy of the enhanced PREDICT-PD algorithm and the updated MDS prodromal criteria compared to their original versions and support the concept of integrating new evidence and their use in PD risk screening.
To cite this abstract in AMA style:
K. Marini, K. Seppi, S. Kiechl, H. Stockner, P. Willeit, J. Willeit, A. Djamshidian-Tehrani, G. Rungger, W. Poewe, P. Mahlknecht. Comparison of different risk scores for Parkinson’s disease in a population-based 10-year study [abstract]. Mov Disord. 2022; 37 (suppl 2). https://www.mdsabstracts.org/abstract/comparison-of-different-risk-scores-for-parkinsons-disease-in-a-population-based-10-year-study/. Accessed June 15, 2025.« Back to 2022 International Congress
MDS Abstracts - https://www.mdsabstracts.org/abstract/comparison-of-different-risk-scores-for-parkinsons-disease-in-a-population-based-10-year-study/