Category: Epidemiology
Objective: To apply the PREDICT-PD algorithm of risk indicators for Parkinson’s disease (PD), in a prospective community-based study (the Bruneck Study), representative of the general elderly population.
Background: Identifying individuals at risk of developing PD is critical in order to define target populations for future neuroprotective trials.
Method: PREDICT-PD risk scores were calculated based on risk factor assessments obtained at baseline (2005, n=574 subjects). Cases of incident PD were identified at 5 and 10-year follow-up. Participants with PD or secondary parkinsonism at baseline were excluded (n=35). We analysed the association of log2-transformed risk scores with the presence of well-established markers as surrogates for PD risk at baseline and with incident PD at follow-up.
Results: Twenty participants with incident PD were identified during follow-up (11 in the first 5 years and 9 between 5 and 10 years of follow-up ). Baseline PREDICT-PD risk scores were associated with incident PD with odds ratios of 2.09 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35–3.25; p=0.001) after 5 years and of 1.95 (95%CI, 1.36–2.79; p<0.001) after 10 years of follow-up per doubling of risk scores. In addition, presence of established PD risk markers (olfactory performance, motor deficits, and signs of REM-sleep behaviour disorder) at baseline was significantly correlated with higher PREDICT-PD scores.
Conclusion: The PREDICT-PD score was associated with an increased risk for incident PD in our sample and may represent a useful first screening step in future algorithms built to identify cases of prodromal PD.
Abstract presented at previous meeting:
“Predicting Parkinson’s disease in the general elderly population: a longitudinal application of the PREDICT-PD approach”
Kathrin Marini, Philipp Mahlknecht, Franziska Tutzer, Atbin Djamshidian, Arno Gasperi, Stefan Kiechl, Gregorio Rungger, Heike Stockner, Peter Willeit, Johann Willeit, Alastair Noyce, Werner Poewe, and Klaus Seppi.
“Jahrestagung der Österreichischen Parkinson-Gesellschaft”, 22.11.2019, Vienna, Austria.
To cite this abstract in AMA style:
K. Marini, P. Mahlknecht, F. Tutzer, H. Stockner, A. Gasperi, A. Djamshidian-Tehrani, P. Willeit, S. Kiechl, J. Willeit, G. Rungger, A.J Noyce, A. Schrag, W. Poewe, K. Seppi. Application of a Simple Parkinson’s Disease Risk Score in a Longitudinal Population Based Cohort [abstract]. Mov Disord. 2020; 35 (suppl 1). https://www.mdsabstracts.org/abstract/application-of-a-simple-parkinsons-disease-risk-score-in-a-longitudinal-population-based-cohort/. Accessed June 15, 2025.« Back to MDS Virtual Congress 2020
MDS Abstracts - https://www.mdsabstracts.org/abstract/application-of-a-simple-parkinsons-disease-risk-score-in-a-longitudinal-population-based-cohort/